nCa Report
Ashgabat, 11 July 2011 (nCa) — The recent incident in Abadan town of Turkmenistan that the government described as accidental flare of pyrotechnics but was reportedly a series of blasts in an ammunition depot could possibly be a part of the desperate American strategy for the region.
The evidence so far is flimsy and circumstantial but there are reasons to feel that the United States, directly or through proxies, may have had some kind of involvement in the deadly event.
Here are some dots that need to be connected:
- On 8 July, at about 9:30 am, when we were driving to Abadan to look at the situation, an SUV with US embassy number plates was returning from Abadan. The driver of the SUV was later seen getting out of the vehicle in Ashgabat, armed with a holstered dagger and a taser gun, frightening weapons in close quarters situations. It is not clear whether he was violating Turkmen laws by wearing openly a dagger and a taser gun outside the embassy compound.
- On reaching Abadan, we talked to some people in a residential area that was only partially cordoned off, which means that it was possible to drive on the main streets. Speaking to a small group of youngsters, we found that someone in an American embassy vehicle that morning (probably the same SUV we saw returning from Abadan) had offered to buy any video clips or photos anyone had made during the blast incident.
- The most extensive and almost real-time coverage of the incident was at www.news-asia.ru, a website that is believed to be wholly or partially funded by American government or entities. It works mainly from Bishkek, a hotbed of American intrigues in the region.
- The Soros site www.eurasianet.org, widely known to encourage instability in Central Asia, has raised the prospect that the Abadan incident could have been a way of covering up the theft of arms and ammunition in the depot. This may or may not be true but it looks more like a hasty attempt to cover the real tracks, lest anyone cast a suspicious eye on the Americans. The Eurasianet story can be found here http://www.eurasianet.org/node/63843
- Many Russian language social media sites have carried the message of someone who signed as Imalbek Yanisiev, claiming to be a photojournalist for a Turkmen youth human rights group, Ikhtyk namirusil. The Eurasianet, reporting about this message, has translated Ikhtyk namirusil as ‘Our Cause.’ This could possibly translate to ‘Our Cause’ in some language but Turkmen is not that language.
- The message of the so-called Imalbek Yanisiev was stored at the Keeperfile.ru page that asks for visitor’s login details http://keeperfile.ru/files/getfile/?hsh=4e17185e50618&trk=4e17215fbe9d4 — The complete message, however, is also available at a LiveJournal entry http://vitaliy-averin.livejournal.com/168828.htm
- A Russian hackers site XakNet (http://xaknet.ru/) that keeps track of suspicious net activities had initially flagged the post of Imalbek at Keeperfile.ru as a phishing attempt because in order to access the complete message the visitor had to login with their username and password from Google, Yandex or Mril.ru account. However, the page of XahNet that carried the warning has since disappeared and it just shows error 404 (page not found). The issue here is: Was it really a phishing attempt or was it a scheme to collect the username and passwords of all those (mostly within Turkmenistan) who would be sympathetic to any kind of opposition so that a list could be created them to act as web activists in future?
- Even though Ikhtyk namirusil cannot be translated into Turkmen language as Our Cause, the name of the person raises some interesting possibilities. If we take the name Imalbek Yanisiev and remove the Slavanized ‘iev’ at the end of the surname, the name Imalbek Yanis, with some imagination, can roughly translate into ‘Journey to our Cause,’ the kind of symbolism so dear to the hearts of the likes of Soros Fund, National Endowment for Democracy and all the other architects of colour revolutions.
- Habrahabr, a Russian social media and citizen journalism site, reported that the domain name of Ikhtyk namirusil had been registered on 20 June 2011, i.e. just a couple of weeks before the Abadan incident. (http://habrahabr.ru/blogs/infosecurity/123744/). Habrahabr also reported that the Ikhtyk namirusil site had no other information except for the Abadan story. Eurasianet also confirmed this piece. The question is, was the domain registered in the hope of an incident such as Abadan, or was it with the knowledge that something like this would take place soon?
- The message of the real or fictitious Imalbek Yanisiev had a novel angle: He (or she) said that the Abadan incident had been staged by the authorities to crackdown on the opposition. The message claimed that large number of opposition figures and activists had been arrested. In addition to LiveJournal link given earlier in this report, major portions of the message can also be seen at Regnum site (http://www.regnum.ru/news/fd-abroad/accidents/1423587.html) — This begs to stretch imagination beyond reality.
Even though several explanations can be offered for Abadan incident and the dots that we have identified can be connected in different ways, there is no denying the fact that the probability of American involvement cannot be ruled out entirely.