BP Statistical Review June 2013: Cheap shot at Turkmenistan and Russia

Tariq Saeedi

Ashgabat, 16 June 2013 (nCa) — BP kicked into gutter the remaining pieces of the credibility of its annual Statistical Review when it announced Wednesday the arbitrarily and illogically revised figures of the world gas reserves.

It appears that instead of an eye on the facts, BP has vented out its frustration in being unable to bulldoze its way through certain countries by slashing down drastically their reserve figures.

Russia, the undisputed Number 1 for decades, has been relegated to the second spot, its reserves capriciously revised from 44.6 to 32.9 tcm (trillion cubic meters).

Iran, whose reserve figures have been raised slightly from 33.1 to 33.6 tcm, has emerged by default as Number 1.

The biggest and most telling alteration is in the gas reserves of Turkmenistan, a huge cut of 28%, from 24.3 to 17.5 tcm.

The following table gives comparative ranking of gas reserves of top 20 countries as per BP Statistical Review, editions June 2012 and June 2013:

World Ranking – Gas Reserves – Top 20 Countries

As per BP Statistical Review, editions June 2012 and June 2013

Country	Reserves – End 2011 (Trillion Cubic Meters)	World Ranking – End 2011	Reserves – End 2012 (Trillion Cubic Meters)	World Ranking – End 2012
Russia	44.6	1	32.9	2
Iran	33.1	2	33.6	1
Qatar	25.0	3	25.1	3
Turkmenistan	24.3	4	17.5	4
USA	8.5	5	8.5	5
Saudi Arabia	8.2	6	8.2	6
UAE	6.1	7	6.1	7
Venezuela	5.5	8	5.6	8
Nigeria	5.1	9	5.2	9
Algeria	4.5	10	4.5	10
Australia	3.8	11	3.8	11
Iraq	3.6	12	3.6	12
China	3.1	13	3.1	13
Indonesia	3.0	14	2.9	14
Malaysia	2.4	15	1.3	18
Norway	2.1	16	2.1	15
Canada	2.0	17	2.0	16
Kazakhstan	1.9	18	1.3	19
Kuwait	1.8	19	1.8	17
Uzbekistan	1.6	20	1.1	20

Source: BP Statistical Review, June 2012 and June 2013

Download link to BP Statistical Review edition June 2013: http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/statistical-review/statistical_review_of_world_energy_2013.pdf

Download link to BP Statistical Review edition June 2012: http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2011/STAGING/local_assets/pdf/statistical_review_of_world_energy_full_report_2012.pdf

Reuters, Dow Jones and other agencies report that Christoph Ruhl, the BP chief economist, said during the launching of the latest edition of BP Statistical Review, “The former Soviet republics had a different accounting system for proven reserves and what we did was convert all their numbers to the Western accounting system in one fell swoop and that’s why there are changes.”

This is by far the most outlandish statement, even by BP standards.

Christoph Ruhl was in Ashgabat last year for the launching of the BP Statistical Review, edition June 2012.

That was the first time that BP acknowledged Turkmenistan’s gas reserves anywhere near the real figures.

nCa confronted Ruhl on the duplicitous practice of BP in reporting for years a ridiculously figure for the gas reserves of Turkmenistan.

Taken by surprise, Ruhl tried to come up with several answers, none of them the least bit convincing.

The complete report on our confrontation with BP can be found here: http://newscentralasia.net/2012/07/30/a-small-feud-with-bp/

He talked about the difference between ABC and P1, P2 classification systems, conveniently forgetting the fact that audit reports of GCA (Gaffney, Cline and Associates) on some major fields of Turkmenistan were available for several years. And, their reports give figures in the system followed by BP.

Unlike BP, GCA is a reliable and responsible company. No one has as yet disputed any of its audit reports.

GCA reports about Turkmenistan fields give the figures in the same system that Ruhl calls ‘Western accounting system.’ Here are the GCA audit figures about Yoloton (now called Galkynysh) and Yashlar fields of Turkmenistan, as announced by them in a press conference in October 2011 in Ashgabat:

Yoloton and Yashlar – Gas-in-place – 2008 and 2011

These figures were made public in 2011 and they were subsequently consolidated and revised upwards. Nevertheless, let’s stick to them for the sake of argument.

BP Review of June 2013 says that the reserve figures of Turkmenistan have been cut down from 24.3 to 17.5 tcm because of ‘conversion to the western system.’ This, as we said on Ruhl’s face last year, is a cock and bull story.

GCA reports are in the same ‘western accounting system’ that Ruhl talks about and they assert that the combined Best Estimates of Gas-in-Reserve in Yoloton and Yashlar are 19.05 tcm (16.4 + 2.65 = 19.05).

This certified figure, just from these two fields of Turkmenistan, is already 2 tcm higher than what BP suggests as the total gas reserves of Turkmenistan i.e. 17.5 tcm.

Add to that the reserves of Bagtiyarlyk, the CNPC PSA at the right bank of AmudaryaRiver, which is nearly 3 tcm. This will come to 22 tcm, more or less.

Then, there is Daulatabat, the first major field certified by GCA. The best estimates for Daulatabat as per GCA audit were above 2 tcm. This brings the reserves to 24 tcm.

And, we are talking of just four fields – Yoloton (now Galkynysh), Yashlar, Bagtiyarlyk and Daulatabat. But that is not the entire gas wealth of Turkmenistan.

In fact, most of the known gas fields of Turkmenistan have still to be audited and the final figures would be a lot higher than 24 tcm.

So, the question is, what is BP motive in misreporting the gas reserves of Turkmenistan?

An honest answer cannot be expected from BP itself. The greed, irresponsibility and deviousness of BP are a well documented fact.

Did BP upgrade the reserve figures of Turkmenistan last year just to flatter the Turkmen government in the hope of getting a mainland PSA or service contract? If that was the case, it proves what many have suspected already – BP Statistical Review is an instrument for manipulation and intimidation, not a book of facts. In fact, it deserves to be described as the annual Joke Book of BP.

If the downgrading of figures this year is an attempt to shoo away the prospective investors, it is an exercise in futility because Turkmenistan would be much better off without such investors who rely on BP Review.

More worrying for now is as to why Iran has been brought to the top of the reserve list?

Does BP know something that we don’t, as yet?

The last we know when BP was kind to Iran was when it engineered the toppling of a democratic government in Iran and brought the Shah to power who ruled ruthlessly for decades.

Is something in the offing?