Tariq Saeedi and Elvira Kadyrova
CAPS is going places, with all the elements of TAPI amplifying in scope and geographical spread in every direction. The new and emerging ground realities are driving this amazing makeover.
The primary ground reality is the situation in Ukraine, with many secondary ground realities as its byproducts.
As mentioned in the previous part of this series, some 100-120 bcm of the Russian gas is in search of new markets and nearly 20 bcm of that can be absorbed in Pakistan. This is in addition to the entire volumes of TAPI and IP that can also be absorbed in Pakistan.
As we know, at least three processes are in motion to find ways to bring the Russian gas to Pakistan.
Separately, there is the conversation to sell about 20 bcm of Russian gas to Central Asia.
Therefore, hypothetically speaking, we know how to dispose 40 bcm of the 100-120 bcm of the Russian gas that is ready for long-term departure from the European markets.
It leaves us with 60-80 bcm and there are at least two ways to consume it profitably. One is to bring it to the Gawadar deep sea port and convert it into polymers and fertilizers and the other is to reroute it to the Chinese market where the ready demand is for at least 200-250 bcm in addition to the volumes that are already being supplied to China from various sources including Central Asia.
The CNPC expects China to cut its coal share in the energy consumption to 44% by 2030 and 8% by 2060. This will be done mainly by acquiring more natural gas, preferably pipeline gas.
The natural gas, as a percentage of primary energy mix, will constitute 12% by 2030. In 2020, this share was 8.7%.
Despite the slowdown, the energy consumption from all sources in China is likely to grow by 5-6% annually.
For both of these options for the disposal of the Russian gas – establishing polymer and fertilizer industries at the coast of Pakistan, and consuming it in the Chinese markets – we will return in detail in a later part of this series.
When we reach that part of the series, we will also merge there the options for the lucrative use of the additional gas that Central Asia will produce in the near future.
So far, we have skimmed through just one ground reality emanating from the Ukraine – the denial of European market for the Russian gas. This is one of the forces steering energetically the TAPI into CAPS (Central-Asia-Pakistan-Seas).
We have also hinted that the Ukraine situation and the ongoing set of commissions and omission accompanying it, has effectively demolished globalization. What is left is regionalization. Arguably, the comprehension will take some time to sink in but we are already witnessing a kind of awareness in this part of the world.
We will return to the question of the rebirth of regionalization from the ashes of globalization and how it is transforming TAPI into CAPS later in this series. We will do this before returning to the issue of the natural gas.
Needless to say, the moment is here and now for CAPS (Central-Asia-Pakistan-Seas), and that calls for a bit of detour.
For now, there is the need to take three important detours.
* * *
The first detour:
This is the time to listen to Magtumguly, the national poet of Turkmenistan, and Shakespeare, the genius who singlehandedly enriched the English language in so many ways.
This is also the time to give an idea of Nietzsche a new attire and find fuller meaning in The Metamorphosis of Kafka.
Here are the opening couplets from ‘This is the Time,’ [also translated as Dawn is the Time] a very famous poem of Magtumduly:
My friends, do not be in deep sleep at dawn,
This is the time when the doors are open for wishes,
And saintly men are granted blessings,
This is the time when God shares his light.
Shakespeare, in Julius Caesar, says nearly the same thing in a different way:
There is a tide in the affairs of men,
Which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune.
Omitted, all the voyage of their life is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat.
And we must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures.
With the need to act here and now, to seize the moment, as reminded by Magtumguly and Shakespeare, we turn to Kafka and Nietzsche.
Metamorphosis, published in 1915, is the best-known work of Franz Kafka. Metamorphosis tells the story of salesman Gregor Samsa, who wakes one morning to find himself inexplicably transformed into a huge insect and subsequently struggles to adjust to this new condition.
Every few years, some literary critic looks afresh at Metamorphosis.
Volker Drüke (2013) believes that the crucial metamorphosis in the story is that of Grete, the sister of Gregor. She is the character the title is directed at. Gregor’s metamorphosis is followed by him languishing and ultimately dying. Grete, by contrast, has matured as a result of the new family circumstances and assumed responsibility.
As the Generation Z is newly rediscovering Kafka, the interpretation of Volker Drüke that Grete and not Gregor is the main character of Metamorphosis is an attractive idea. It is actually Grete, coping with the condition of her brother, transformed bravely, drawing from her own internal strength and potential.
In 1888, German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche first stated, “Out of life’s school of war—what doesn’t kill me, makes me stronger.”
Between Magtumguly, Shakespeare, Kafka, and Neitsche, this is the story of here and now for CAPS, the Central-Asia-Pakistan-Seas concept
The Central Asia, as a key region in the Eurasian landmass, has undergone a number of natural and manmade calamities during the past few years and come out strong.
There is also the awareness in Central Asia to seize the moment.
* * *
The second detour:
Russia and China are the integral part of the region in so many ways.
The capacity of Russia, just like any other country in the world, depends greatly on how far its own people support the government and its policies.
The Gallup, the recognized authority on impartial opinion surveys, published on 24 February 2023 a graph and an accompanying article.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/470723/sanctions-fail-sour-russians-outlook-economy.aspx
The title of the article by Benedict Vigers is ‘Sanctions Fail to Sour Russians’ Outlook on Economy.’
Vigers argues at the start of the article, “Even as the West slapped Moscow with economic sanctions after Russia invaded Ukraine last year, Russians remained as optimistic as ever about their local economic conditions. More than two in five Russians (44%) surveyed between August and November last year saw their local economic circumstances getting better, while 29% saw them getting worse.”
And, here is the graph:
Later in the article he says, “As a result, the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development all predicted declines of between 2% and 4% in Russian gross domestic product in 2022. — However, this has not been translated into worse economic perceptions at the local level. Instead, they improved by four percentage points between 2021 and 2022. And in 2023, the IMF even predicts a small 0.3% growth in the Russian economy despite far-reaching Western sanctions.”
As a result, Russia itself is a ground reality transforming TAPI into CAPS.
* * *
The third detour:
We mentioned very briefly earlier that a corridor can only be successful if it is based on inclusion rather exclusion.
Here we would mention just one example of how a corridor acquires deep and wide connections if it wants to flourish.
We have taken this example from the website of the EENI Global Business School of EU, located in Spain — http://en.reingex.com/Ashgabat.shtml
International Transport and Transit Corridor of the Ashgabat Agreement
The International Transport and Transit Corridor of the Ashgabat Agreement is a multimodal transport agreement between India, Iran , Kazakhstan , Oman , Pakistan , Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan .
The main objective of the Ashgabat Agreement is to create an international corridor to facilitate the transport of products by the shortest trade route between the Central Asian republics and the seaports of the Persian Gulf and Oman .
The Ashgabat Agreement contemplates the trade barriers reduction and the simplification of procedures for the movement of products between the member countries.
The International Transport and Transit Corridor of the Ashgabat Agreement connects with the New Silk Road
Corridor
- Entry into force of the Ashgabat Agreement: April 2016;
- Initial member countries (2011): Iran, Oman, Qatar, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan;
- 2013: Qatar withdrew from the Ashgabat Agreement;
- 2015: entry of Kazakhstan;
- 2016: entry of Pakistan;
- 2018: entry of India;
Note: Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are not part of the Ashgabat Agreement.
Logistics infrastructures related to the Ashgabat Agreement
The first part of the International Transport and Transit Corridor of the Ashgabat Agreement passes through the railway lines of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Iran. The second part passes through the routes that connect the Bender Abbas port and the Chahbahar port (Iran ) with the port of the Sultanate of Oman .
- Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Tajikistan Railway Line (TAT);
- Afghanistan-Turkmenistan-Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey transport corridor;
- Iran-Turkmenistan-Kazakhstan railway;
- Chabahar Port;
- Transport Corridor Europe-Caucasus-Asia (TRACECA);
- International North-South Transport Corridor;
- Trans-Caspian Railway;
- Highway between India, Russia, Iran, Europe and Central Asia.
Asian regional economic communities related to the International Transport and Transit Corridor of the Ashgabat Agreement
- Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Program (CAREC): Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Iran is an observer country;
- Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO): Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan;
- Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO): Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan;
- Commonwealth of Independent States (CEI): Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Ukraine, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan;
- Organization for Cooperation between Railways (OSJD): Azerbaijan, Albania, Afghanistan, Belarus, Bulgaria, Hungary, Vietnam, Georgia, Iran, Kazakhstan, China, North Korea, South Korea, Cuba, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Mongolia, Poland, Russia, Romania, Slovakia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan , Ukraine, Czech Republic and Estonia;
- Asian Clearing Union (ACU): Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Iran, Myanmar, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka;
- South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC): Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka;
- Iran, Oman and India are members of the Indian-Ocean Rim Association ( IORA );
- Kazakhstan is a member of Eurasian Economic Union ( EAEU );
- Cooperation Council of Turkic Speaking States (now OTS).
- Oman is a member of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) ;
- India is a member of: Bay of Bengal Initiative ( BIMSTEC ); Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement (APTA); South Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation ( SASEC ).
Main Euro-Asian institutions related to the corridor
- Boao Forum for Asia;
- Asia Cooperation Dialogue (ACD);
- Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP);
- Asian Development Bank ( ADB );
- Colombo Plan.
Major Islamic institutions related to the corridor
- Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OCI);
- Islamic Development Bank (IsDB).
The main religions of the region of the International Transport and Transit Corridor of the Ashgabat Agreement are:
- Islam;
- Hinduism;
- Zoroastrianism;
- Jainism;
- Sikhism
The International Transport and Transit Corridor of the Ashgabat Agreement belongs to the:
- Central Eurasian Economic Area;
- Hindu Economic Area;
- Arab Economic Area.
New Silk Road (China-Europe) Eurasian Land Transport Initiative
- Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor;
- Asia-Africa Growth Corridor;
- Almaty-Bishkek Economic Corridor;
- China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor;
- China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor;
- China-Pakistan Economic Corridor;
- Trans-Caspian Trade and Transit Corridor (Central Corridor);
- Nanning-Singapore Economic Corridor;
- Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan-Afghanistan-Iran Transport Corridor (KTAI-ECO) .
- Trans European Transport Corridors.
Trans-European Transport Network Corridors
- Atlantic Transport Corridor;
- North Sea-Baltic Transport Corridor;
- North Sea-Mediterranean Transport Corridor;
- Baltic-Adriatic Transport Corridor.
Transport Corridor Europe-Caucasus-Asia TRACECA: Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Romania, Tajikistan, Turkey, Ukraine and Uzbekistan
As can be seen in this example, a corridor gets connected in every direction and every which way. It cannot exist in vacuum.
* * *
With these three detours, we must return to the mainstream of this series – the ground realities and how they are transforming TAPI into CAPS. /// nCa, 6 March 2023
To be continued . . .