nCa Analysis
We saw in the previous part that Central Asia is on solid grounds – the able-bodied segment of the population can generate the volume of economic activity to meet the needs of the other two segments of the population, the young and the old.
Additionally, this balance is not at risk of being upset when the current youth bulge starts reaching the pensionable age. It is because the average fertility rate (total births per female) in the region is about 3.0 (actually from 2.7 to 3.2, varying in the five countries of Central Asia).
As we know, the population pyramid, to retain its shape, needs the minimum fertility rate of 2.1. As long as the fertility rate doesn’t drop alarmingly, the population pyramid in Central Asia will keep standing on a wide base.
There seems no reason to compel the governments in Central Asia to raise the pension age from its current position. Consequently, the pension rage that is currently tormenting France will not have any reason to spread to Central Asia though it could tour the other countries in the OECD space.
That said, the region cannot afford to be complacent.
The populations are growing, the arable lands are in danger of depleting their fertility, the cohesion in the societies needs constant servicing, and the resources, though adequate, need to be utilized judiciously.
The macro picture is that a country should be able to take care of its elders and the children from within the economic eco system it creates and maintains. Asking the people to work a few more years before going into retirement is not a viable solution – it is just kicking the can ahead.
Solutions, actually, are quite simple though it will take hard work, and prudence to implement them.
In no particular order, we will mention here some of the steps the region needs to take.
For starters, there is the need to differentiate between the food self-sufficiency and food security. We will deal with this in a separate report but for now let it suffice that food self-sufficiency is a part of food security not a synonym for food security.
An important task here is to remove the stigma from GMO (Genetically Modified Organisms).
A genetically modified organism contains DNA that has been altered using genetic engineering. Genetically modified animals are mainly used for research purposes, while genetically modified plants are common in today’s food supply.
Leaving the animals aside, there is no harm in letting the genetically modified grains, vegetables and fruit to make their way to the kitchen.
Come to think of it, the grains and some vegetables and fruit are already genetically modified. For instance, the rice we use is not the rice that originally grew naturally in the Eastern Himalayas.
The wheat today is not what our ancestor found in the Fertile Crescent.
The Apple is not the same, neither is mango.
There should be a systematic drive in Central Asia to make the GMOs (excluding the animals) not only acceptable but also popular among the consumers. At the same time, the lab and the farm should work together to genetically improve the staple grains and rice, the popular fruit and vegetables.
There is also the need to ensure that the economy is based on production and not services. This would require conscious effort – when a country starts becoming prosperous, there is the tendency to lean heavily on the services while the production sector gets outsourced.
Simultaneously, there is the need to harness AI (artificial intelligence) and machine learning. The prospects here are unlimited. For instance, the ChatGTP recently found cure for one type of cancer within 30 days of being assigned the task. The ChatGTP also found a date for a man who had been unsuccessful to find a date on his own for years. The possibilities are endless and everywhere. In harnessing AI, one should not ignore the warning sounded the other day by Elon Musk, Steve Wozniak and 1000 other tech leaders.
There is also the need for drastic reforms in the educational sector. The regional countries are already taking some important steps but more needs to be done quickly. There should be a forward looking match between the skills of an individual and the jobs available in the new and emerging areas of a knowledge-based economy.
Notably, there is the need to stop considering the pensioners as a burden. This is where Central Asia is already in a comfortable zone. The tradition across the region is to treat the elders with respect and care. In addition, there are many pensioners who are allowed at their own request to keep working because their skills and experience are useful for the team. This is a standard practice in Central Asia.
Moreover, how can we decide as to what should be the retirement age for an Albert Schweitzer, a Mother Teresa, a Ruth Pfau, and a Grandma Moses.
The paradigm wants to shift itself. — The children and the pensioners exist within the same holistic universe – the society.
This panoramic view allows for quantifying the actual needs of the elders and the children rather than measuring them in monetary terms.
What would an elder, who has spent their productive years in some kind of economic activity, actually need in the years of their retirement?
There are the basic needs – the food they want, the clothes they want to wear, the medical facilities they need, and the housing where they can live with peace of mind.
Then, there are the secondary needs – the company of the people, the ability to follow the desires of their heart to either roam the world or stay in blissful solitude in their comfy corner (perhaps a mix of both), and generally feel a useful and wanted member of the society.
For Central Asia, it would be easy to cater for these needs because the governments have not totally withdrawn from the retail sector. The shops owned by the government are providing the same quality of shopping experience as the privately owned markets. With the knowledge of the actual number of pensioners in their area, such shops can provide home delivery of the shopping list of the pensioners, at the reduced cost or free of cost. This can take care of two basic needs – food and clothing.
The medical establishments are already responsive to the needs of the pensioners across the region. For example, in Ashgabat, the ambulance reaches the patients house within 20 minutes of receiving the phone call, and it is free cost, not just for the pensioners but everyone else. An ambulance ride to the hospital in New York will cost about USD 900.
Loneliness is a silent killer. This area has been rather overlooked. Some NGOs are doing excellent work in Central Asia but more needs to be done to provide a sense of togetherness to the elderly.
Perhaps some kind of chat groups can be created in the social media for the elderly. This may entail providing them with the tablets or smartphones, and to teach them how to use these devices.
There are many more things that can be done to ensure that the pension rage embroiling France would never reach Central Asia. Compassion and foresight with total sense of responsibility are the guiding lights.
This brings us to a phenomenon that is eating the western societies from within, like termite. This is a matter of concern for Central Asia. /// nCa, 30 March 2023
To be continued . . .