Dr. Begench Karayev
“The most important thing in our life is time. Only it goes away irrevocably. So don’t throw it away! You can go to school, go to college. But walking doesn’t mean learning. Strive for knowledge, cultivate a research beginning in yourself. There is nothing more exciting than science, and nothing more impressive than discovery!” – These words belong to the famous Turkmen mathematician, unfortunately, now deceased, Professor Muhammad Meredov, who is rightfully the founder of the school of mixed-type differential equations, in relation to the hypothesis of the uniqueness of the solution of the famous Tricomi Equation.
It used to happen that when discussing mathematics, Muhammad Meredovich and I smoothly moved on to the humanities, or rather to the field of international relations and diplomacy. Now I am more and more aware that mathematical thinking is very useful for current international experts, especially diplomats. Mathematics, like chess, is of key importance in the formation of logical thinking, and this was stated by Aristotle– the teacher of Alexander the Great.
Almost a decade and a half ago, when the world was gripped by the largest financial crisis since the beginning of the century, in one of the conversations Professor Meredov dropped a phrase that still does not leave me alone. Literally, he said the following: “For a mathematician, the initial step is to find out, as it were, the starting, but the main question: “Is there a solution to the problem or not?” From this we can draw a logical conclusion that for mathematicians the matter is greatly simplified if it turns out and it is proved that the desired “solution” does not exist. Then, as they say, you can refer to the famous phrase of Pontius Pilate and “wash your hands”.
But the respected professor always smiled, while saying that there is a correction factor for diplomats, the essence of which is that they are doomed to find a solution, moreover, constructive. Unlike the “only possible” solution, as it is in mathematics, in diplomacy, a priori, there must be a solution, even if worked out, and besides, there may be “variants” of solutions. Otherwise, as Karl von Clausewitz bequeathed, the military will take up the case, which implements the policy “by other means.”
Let us now recall another mathematician who celebrated his 65th birthday on March 20, 2023 and became a legendary man in the world thanks to incredibly accurate forecasts of major events in nature and society, including in world politics. This is Sidik Afghan, who, thanks to a special formula developed by him, declares his accurate forecast regarding the turning events expected in a month, a year and even in 50 years. In particular, mathematician Sidik Afgan, who is called a genius, openly says that the current year 2023 is much more dangerous than the previous one, as well as than 2024, and only in 2025 will the turning point come.
In particular, Sidik Afgan is confident that the European Union will soon cease to exist. In the period from 2027 to 2032, this international political association will no longer exist. An equally sad fate awaits the United States. “There is a turning point in 2025… I hope so, there will be no American power in 2027,” the mathematician is quoted by the world’s leading media. Speaking about the Russian land, Sidik said on one of the TV shows: “People here are true people. Very kind people. Conscience, freedom, justice, equality. Always be happy! Your people are like a heart to me.” It only remains to add: “Everything is said correctly, and this is true for all countries and peoples of the world, for the Community of Nations as a whole!” In the words of a mathematician, for the triumph of the function of kindness in practice, it is necessary that in practice all the above-mentioned arguments are implemented in a logical relationship simultaneously: Conscience, freedom, justice, equality.
In general, we now observe that in predicting major shifts in world politics, public opinion is increasingly turning to representatives of science, at least to those who operate with mathematical formulas and calculations. This happens along with the preservation of the mystical predictions of the famous Nostradamus and Baba Vanga, as well as astrologers who have not only natural talent, but also a substantial business on predictions.
It must be admitted that against the background of such sensations, the “Queen of Sciences” – mathematics attracts attention to itself with the external beauty of sensational hypotheses or theorems. But her dry computational abstraction repels those who try to look into her inner world, where formulas are woven much more complicated than the convolutions of the brain or the insides of mammals. At the same time, digital technologies and computerization of analytical processes form a fairway for mathematics, or, more precisely, for methods of “quantification” of research.
Professor Muhammad Meredov, as a scientist and a professional, has always emphasized the paramount importance of differential equations, and not only in mathematical analysis. Having a basic engineering education, I have never given up trying to find a platform for synchronizing physical and mathematical methods with general philosophical concepts in geopolitical analysis and forecasting. As a result, I will say that, unlike mathematics, differentiation prevails over equations in diplomacy. In particular, we can look at the current non-equilibrium state of the “Potsdam equation” in the system of international relations, which is based on the UN institutions. The Community of Nations today is the only foundation of global stability, although the abundance of disputes sometimes calls into question the functionality of the UN in the conditions of the geopolitical “storm” of modernity.
In this context, forecasts, especially numerological ones, even if they are stunning, can distract attention from traditional approaches for fundamental analysis of the international situation. Although the forecast, especially with a sensational character, is likely to be acceptable for those people who, at best, are in the dark about the essence of events or want to hear what they want.
In particular, what does it mean that in just 3-4 years the United States will be gone or will they experience the sad fate of the former USSR? Here we can talk about a certain transformation of the great powers, but not about their disappearance or total destruction. The country that claimed to achieve a “communist paradise” was falling apart for several decades, and not as a result of only a relatively short period of “Gorbachev’s” perestroika. It was the sluggishness and rigidity of the Soviet system, and not the ideals of socialism, that caused the collapse of the former Union. The proof of this is the transformation of China, where Deng Xiaoping announced reforms only a couple of years before Gorbachev, but under the slogan “Socialism with Chinese specifics.” At the same time, it should be noted that the basis of the strategy of fundamental transformations in China in the late 70s was determined by the principle of “Reform and openness”, which was laid during the so-called “deep stagnation” in the USSR.
While China was steadily rising to the top of global politics, Gorbachev, after more than six and a half years of chaotic “acceleration” policy, announced the liquidation of the Soviet Union. Of course, the so-called “defeated side” also joined the celebrations on the occasion of the historic victory in the Cold War. This is evidenced by the lines of the Camp David Declaration signed on February 1, 1992 between the United States and the Russian Federation. At that time, this rather complicated historical process of tectonic scale was accompanied by festive fireworks that left no room for sad thoughts. As the famous German philosopher and politician Karl Marx correctly noted: “Laughing, humanity says goodbye to its past.”
Does the current political and social organism of Western, in particular, American society, allow for the possibility of something similar to what happened to the Soviets 30 years ago? Answer: hardly! One of the proofs of this is the preservation of the attractiveness of the system. If it were “rotting”, millions of refugees and migrants in recent years would not have rushed across the Mediterranean to Western Europe or across the Mexican border to the United States. Let us recall how the collapse of the Soviets began – with the rampant so-called “glasnost” and the general, moreover, officially proclaimed criticism of the socialist system and the ideas of communism at the level of the ruling elite. A suitable external environment has already been formed since the publication of the famous “The Origins of Totalitarianism” by Anna Arendt, as well as “1984” and “Animal Farm” by George Orwell.
Speaking about the need for a positive transformation of the state and society, we should pay attention to a number of illustrative examples. For example, a little more than three decades ago, it would seem an ordinary country, but with strong positions of the military elite, Turkey accepts millions of migrants today, and at the same time, a considerable number of them move to this country not as refugees. As a result of the paradigm shift, the existing regime of power in Turkey, responding to national interests, has acquired a much more pragmatic than ideological character. Turkey is actively participating in the global dialogue today, forming a number of issues on the international agenda. In addition to these processes, the attractiveness of Turkish hospitality is increasing, as a result of which the tourism industry brings billions of dollars in revenue to the country. Turkey’s growing television and film industry, which has a multibillion-dollar audience all over the planet, also acts as a dynamic factor of “soft power”.
This to a certain extent suggests that the path of modernization chosen by Turkey to some extent resembles the “Japanese” model, that is, preserving traditions, national colorfulness and the viability of democracy. The spirit of the Janissaries, like the Japanese samurai, was transformed into the creative force of business and technology.
If we can talk about the “Turkish phenomenon” in a military sense, then it is necessary to remember that Turkey joined NATO a year before the 30th anniversary of the Republic’s formation, more precisely on February 18, 1952. Today, in the year of the centenary of its proclamation, Turkey de facto dictates the terms of the North Atlantic Alliance.
Against the background of global processes, when the vector of the world economy and trade, and not only, makes a visible shift to the South or East, it is too early to say the same about world politics. In the foreseeable future, there is unlikely to be a “super-subject” of international relations capable of selecting the role of any state from the current “five” of the UN Security Council.
In this case, despite the toughest confrontations in the UN, the current system of international relations will remain viable for a long time. But at the level of the “five” of the UN Security Council, it is possible that the situation may grow to a critical point when the “elders” in the universal “family” will enter into a showdown with each other in front of the “younger members”. Remember a typical situation – it is children who often act as a conciliatory force in a family drama. In this regard, we will not be surprised that in order to compile or develop a global stability equation, there will be a need for such an argument as the potential of the current “Central Asian Five”. And, this is understandable especially in conditions when this small regional “five” is now attracting increased attention from the aforementioned “big five” of the UN. Here, the Central Asian states are already on the path of transformation from a traditional object of geopolitics into its subject, turning over images from memoirs dedicated to the “Big Game”.
I would not like to belittle the role of young and small-scale states of the world, but in today’s situation, most likely, there will be those among them who will be able to moderate the ardor of the “elders”. It is possible that in addition to the aforementioned Turkey, a number of countries in Asia, Africa, and possibly Latin America may act as such.
Here, briefly, are reflections on the process of forming a kind of functional equation in the political and diplomatic sense. It is impossible to state here that “there is no solution”. Therefore, the task boils down to the selection of qualitative arguments, the analysis of the ratio of the so-called “constants” and “variables” in geopolitics, as well as many other factors. But in the political forecast, it would be necessary to stick to the search for favorable outcomes for all mankind. Although there may be objections, referring to the fact that today in the world giant states have clashed not for life, but to the death. In this case, we can only expect a Pyrrhic victory of any side. Then, the global “five” should listen to those subjects who are fighting for survival, stand for peace and stability for the sake of the continuation of the human race. Naturally, most members of the Community of Nations tend to adhere to a neutral line of behavior in relation to the current global confrontation. And this is not accidental, because in life there are still many reasons to recall the poignant lines of Fyodor Dostoevsky: “The happiness of the whole world is not worth one tear on the cheek of an innocent child.”
Dr. Begench Karaev, deals with the problems of philosophy of law and politics. He is the author of a number of textbooks and monographs, including “Political analysis and strategic planning”, “Political analysis: problems of theory and methodology: (Experience in the study of modern Central Asian society)” and “Traditional and modern in the political life of Central Asian society (experience of political analysis)”. ///nCa, 22 May 2023