Tariq Saeedi
It is the first time in more than 45 years that there is peace in Afghanistan. It is also in that long that there are no foreign troops in Afghanistan.
The peace has come at a very heavy price.
According to US Institute of Peace:
- Expenses by the US government – $2.3 trillion
- Death of U.S. military personnel – 2,324,
- Death of U.S. contractors – 3,917
- Death of Allied troops – 1,144
- Death of Afghan military and police – 70,000
- Death of Afghan Civilians – 46,319 (although that is likely a significant underestimation)
- Death of opposition fighters – 53,000
- Afghan refugees – 2.7 million
- Internally displaced persons – 3.25 million
- Deaths in Pakistan in relation to Afghan war – 67,000
[The figures are from USIP report except for refugees and internally displaced persons that are from UNHCR]
The USIP (US Institute of Peace) admits, “The full extent of the indirect costs is greater still, considering injuries and illnesses, displacement, war widows and orphans, malnutrition, destruction of infrastructure and environmental degradation due to the war.”
https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/11/afghanistan-was-loss-better-peace
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There is the need to look beyond the obvious and decide as to what is the right thing to do now? — To chip away at this fragile peace until it collapses or to help strengthen it?
We know the obvious:
- The Taliban have managed to run the country and turnaround the economy without any external aid or funding
- The Taliban have prevented the spread of any infectious diseases.
- The Taliban have managed to keep the population fed, albeit at sustenance level in some areas.
- The Taliban have maintained peace across the country and ensured safe travel on the major routes.
- The Taliban, despite some of their unpopular policies, have administered swift and impartial justice.
- The Taliban have curbed corruption.
- The Taliban, in the very limited space available to them, have built economic partnership with a number of countries.
- The Taliban have banned the cultivation of poppies.
These are some of the obvious things. There are many more.
Now let us try to see what is not so obvious:
- A considerable portion of the Afghan population, perhaps as much as 20%, is ethnic Uzbek and Turkmen. These belong to the Turkic group. This qualifies Afghanistan to join the OTS at some point. As we know, OTS is the fastest growing political and economic bloc with far reaching initiatives.
- Afghanistan has 92km of common border with China. This creates the grounds for Afghanistan joining SCO at a foreseeable time in the future because the SCO was initially called Shanghai Five and the basic criteria for joining it was that the country should have a common border with China.
- Turkmenistan is going to build a railway line from Koshka to Herat. Uzbekistan is upgrading its railway line from Mazar-e-Sharif to Termez. China is building some major roads. The Taliban have compacted the Little Pamir Road, connecting the Badakhshan province to the border of China at the Wakhjir Pass. All the elements are falling in place to make Afghanistan not just a member of various corridors but also the initiator of corridors. Theoretically, Afghanistan is likely to reach the stage where it could set the pace and direction of connectivity.
- There are indications that the industrialization plans of Afghanistan would make it a major natural gas consumer some 5 to 10 years down the line.
- Afghanistan is already asking for more electricity from its traditional suppliers including Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
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While Afghanistan is in motion on its own steam, there is the ever-present resentment that their funds are unjustifiably frozen in the American banks. There is also the fact that the world at large is still reluctant to recognize the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan without assigning any plausible reason for this refusal.
As of February 2024, there are 16 embassies and 12 consular missions in Afghanistan but the Taliban have singled out just five for expressing their gratitude. These are the countries in fully-fledged economic interaction with Afghanistan, contributing solidly to its revival.
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Perceptions are taking shape. Impressions are registering. Memories, good or bad, are forming.
One set of perceptions is being formed by the countries that are trying to help Afghanistan to repair and revive its economy. These are the countries that truly value the peace in Afghanistan. Regardless of who is in power, the people of Afghanistan would react to them warmly and welcome them into the political and economic space of Afghanistan.
Another set of perceptions is being formed by the countries that are holding the funds of Afghanistan and denying the country its right to join the world community. These are the countries that, at least by circumstantial evidence, do not value the peace in Afghanistan. It would be rather presumptuous to assume that the countries hindering Afghanistan would receive the same kind of welcome as the countries helping them.
At least theoretically, it is still possible to chip away at the peace in Afghanistan and push it toward collapse. One does not need a particularly fertile imagination to imagine the ensuing chaos. /// nCa, 18 March 2024