There is an acute shortage of warehouse space in Central Asia, which leads to a situation of zero vacancy in the market. According to Stanislav Akhmedzyanov, Managing Partner of IBC Global, the deficit of modern warehouse facilities in the region is measured in tens of millions of square meters.
“If you need a high-quality modern warehouse, it is almost impossible to find such a facility in Central Asia,” Akhmedzyanov said. “The current deficit of logistics real estate in the region is estimated at approximately 20 million m². This applies to Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan. In these countries, most of the existing warehouse space is class B, but even this little bit is contracted.”
The Central Asian countries are mostly exporters. Tajikistan and Uzbekistan export agricultural products, vegetables and fruits, but modern quality standards require not only high-quality transportation, but also storage.
In Kazakhstan, there are currently 0.07 m² of warehouse space per capita, which is the leading indicator among the countries of Central Asia. In Uzbekistan, the level of infrastructure provision is currently at the level of 0.006 m² of warehouses per capita, in Kyrgyzstan it is even less – 0.005 m² . For comparison, in Russia, infrastructure provision is equal to 0.32 m² per capita, in China – 0.81 m² , in Germany – 4.4 m² , and in the USA – 4.5 m² .
According to various sources, by the end of 2024, about 60 thousand m² of high-quality warehouse space is expected to be commissioned on the market of Uzbekistan alone.
“Considering that the country has about 220 thousand square meters, the new areas will not cover the demand. The country will simply have nowhere to store its vegetables and fruits for sale. However, Tajikistan is now facing an even greater shortage of warehouses. The country is an exporter of vegetables and fruits, but there are no warehouses there. Last year, the PEK company shared its experience of working in Tajikistan; they spent three months looking for their warehouse. This is not surprising, because according to the latest data, only 10 thousand square meters of quality warehouses are available in the country,” the expert noted.
In 2024-2025, Tajikistan expects an increase of about 90 thousand m².
“The situation is slightly better in Kyrgyzstan, where a number of large facilities with a total area of about 332 thousand m² are expected to be commissioned , but given that the country as a whole currently has only 58 thousand m² , these areas may also not be enough,” Akhmedzyanov is confident.
The volume of announced objects in these regions is insufficient to form a reserve of areas. Demand currently significantly exceeds supply.
“The shortage of offers, stable growth of rental rates, expansion of marketplaces and the minimum amount of free space are key indicators indicating an active process of institutionalization of the warehouse real estate market,” the expert emphasized. “Representatives of various market sectors are concerned about this situation, because the issue of a shortage of warehouses is very easy to solve. We need competent consultants and developers, market experts.” /// nCa, 28 August 2024 (cross post from Economist.kg)